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Eve of Destruction: Supervolcanoes, or 'Run, Yogi and Boo Boo, Run!'


Yogi Sometimes various scientific disciplines come together in an almost musical way to produce new knowledge that gives us yet another thing to be terrified of.

That's what happened when volcanologists and geneticists looking at very different sets of data both inferred that something really big happened approximately 75,000 years ago.

For Dr. Michael Rampino and other earth scientists, it was ocean cores that pointed to a sudden 10-degree drop in ocean temperatures 75,000 years ago. As he told PBS' NOVA, "At the time I thought, 'There's something wrong here, this isn't normal. This isn't the way climate usually works.' It usually works on a much slower, more steady basis."

For population geneticists, it was DNA evidence of a population bottleneck about the same time. The evidence seemed to be pointing towards a catastrophic event that greatly reduced human population around the world: perhaps as much as 97-99 percent.

Put the two disciplines together and you get the Toba Catastrophe Theory.

What is a "Toba"? Toba is (not was, is) a supervolcano on the island of Sumatra. All volcanoes are rated on something called the Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI. For our purposes, all you need to know is that the index runs from 0 to 8; Mt. St. Helens, which ejected approximately one cubic kilometer of material, rates a five; and the index is logarithmic, i.e., each whole number represents a 10-fold increase in material ejected. Thus, Mt. Pinatubo, a VEI 6, ejected 10 times more material than Mt. St. Helens. A VEI 7 would eject 100 times more and a VEI 8, a.k.a. a supervolcano, 1000 times more.

 


Comments:

A Bit of an Embellishment, Lee
.
On three counts:

1. It wasn’t QUITE that epic

2. You failed to mention that I was there

3. You will recall, you GOT the nut in the end. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RvN-cElKTA0

I meant the PEANUT, for crying out loud. (Talk about your “Boo Boo”...)
Thanks for pulling me out of that one, Alan. But I'm accustomed to this kind of danger; as Gina can readily tell you, whenever there's a major eruption at this blog, I usually caused it or exacerbated it.

And it's no surprise, as Rolley would no doubt add, since my species has been causing this kind of trouble for a very long time:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q_IYQdKkWsU
OOPs
Oops - you almost got swept away with the tide... spammer got deleted - don't stand too close, Lee!
Spamvolcanoes
huhkjligfs ("Gesundheit!") wants to change topics to the Vuitton Explosivity Index. The eruptions it measures appear to bury people in a lot more ejected material - exponentially more, Roberto would say.
I don't know about dependance on technology. However I do think social cohesion is at dangerously low levels. People just sixty years ago were able to endure quite frightful things-from other people(who are of course more dangerous then nature)without civilization collapsing. But it is not quite as easy to see that today in the Western World.
Except that the rest of the world would be plunged into a volcanic winter: crops across Eurasia would fail -- badly. The Europeans, Russians and Chinese would have all they could do to feed themselves and preserve order in the wake of epic (biblical?) famine and the ensuing breakdown of order and governmental authority to try and pick at the American carcass. As you no doubt know, crop failures were, in many ways, the precipitating event of the French Revolution and countless other social upheavals. Multiply that by a decade and remove the world's granary (the Great Plains) from the equation. Not pretty.
Another interpretation of that genetic bottleneck when *at most* 2,000 people (lately they've been trying to revise that upwards rather desperately) were alive, is that there were eight in all, Noah, his wife, his three sons, and their wives. That means that Toba would have been more recent. When Yellowstone goes, it will lay feet of ash as far east as eastern Nebraska. That will be heavy enough to crush building. Would mankind survive? Oh, I think so, but America would be shattered. Conceivably the east and west coasts would get gobbled up by the Euros and the Chinese and Russians, the south by Mexico. There would be massive starvation world wide, but it is not an extinction level event. There have already been several of these events, not counting Toba, Mammoth Lakes, and a couple three others. Something -did- cause two decades without summer in Europe, recorded in the Matter of Britain as "the wasteland" which enabled the Saxons to finish off the Romano-Briton governance east of the Severn. Yellowstone has been one suggestion for the apparent absence of the US in John's Apocalypse Go boom. It will always go Boom. ;-)
Ben, you raise a good point: our dependence on technology increases our vulnerablity to nature in ways we literally can't imagine. Take something as un-"Eve of Destruction" as a magnetic storm. An especially powerful one could cripple communications, and with it, the global economy. I mean really cripple: way beyond what the clowns in the financial market could ever do.
I have to wonder if humans *would* survive a supervolcano now.. are we more or less flexible than we were 75k years ago? Maybe a few guys with several years of food in their basements would survive.. but too many of us would run out of food, freeze, be diseased, then destroy the ecosystem by eating anything that moves before we die. There wouldn't be anything to hunt for a long time.
Dr. Michael Rampino said: "This isn't the way climate usually works.' It usually works on a much slower, more steady basis." If I'm understanding correctly, it's safe to assume Dr. Rampino isn't on Al Gore's Christmas card list. And you uncharacteristically missed one, Roberto: when Mt. St. Helens erupted here, the sky rained pebbles several many miles away. Did a number on several peoples' cars. Multiply by two orders of magnitude and I'm thinking we'd see at least baseball-sized rocks raining down. Oh, and Ben - having unwillingly watched all the "we've gotta drill this asteroid and blow it up before it hits Earth" movies, I'd suggest that you *not* volunteer to be the one to go down and vent that supervolcano, especially if your "W" stands for "Willis". Only guys named "Affleck" survive those missions...
Roberto, I just have to say that I'm really enjoying your series. Lots of goodies here for an inventive fiction writer. Course, since I live on the edge of Yellowstone, I'm not in the best of places. In Idaho we like to brag about not getting tornados, hurricanes, etc. But when we get it, we'll REALLY get it!
Not just Idaho, most of N. America would go with you. Yikes! Maaaybe we can learn enough about geology/seismology to let the supervolcanos' energy off slowly.